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DEDICATION & INTENT OF THE AUTHOR CHAPTER 3 POLICIES IN 20TH CENTURY CHAPTER 4 CAPACITY BUILDING– NARP CHAPTER 7 AGRICULTURE AND ECONOMICS CHAPTER 8 AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT CHAPTER 9 EGYPT’S FUTURE—HORTICULTURE
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EGYPT TODAYhttp://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/Africa/Egypt.html Most people know about the pyramids and the Nile river and the major cities of Cairo and Alexandria. The more dedicated visitors know about Luxor and the valley of the kings. Perhaps others can find Sharm el Sheik and the Aswan dam on a map of the country. Egypt is surrounded by Israel and the Red sea on the east, Sudan on the south, Libya on the west and the Mediterranean sea on the north. It has one million square kilometers (386.6 square miles) of land of which less than 4% is cultivated for crop production. It is a country in North Africa officially known as the Arab Republic of Egypt and includes the Sinai Peninsula which is located in Asia. It is the 15th most populous country in the world and the second most populous in Africa after Nigeria. The 79 million people live on 40.000 square kilometers. Constitution, Institutions and AdministrationThe 1971 constitution provides for the separation of powers between the executive, the legislature and the judiciary. Islamic law is officially the principal source of legislation, but the Napoleonic Code is a more significant progenitor. The president, the head of state, has executive authority, including the ability to veto legislation, and enjoys vast powers of patronage. Presidential appointees include the vice-presidents, the prime minister and ministers, provincial governors, armed forces and security heads, major religious figures and High Court judges. The president is also supreme commander of the armed forces. The president was previously nominated by a two-thirds majority of the Majlis al Shaab (People's Assembly) and elected by referendum. Following an amendment to the constitution, in September 2005 the president was for the first time elected by universal suffrage. Candidates fielded by legal parties are eligible if the parties are five years old and hold 5% of the seats in parliament, whereas independent candidates must win backing from 250 elected politicians drawn from the People's Assembly, the Shura Council (advisory chamber) and provincial councils. The stipulation was contentious since the NDP holds almost all the seats in the Shura Council (a mainly ineffective 264-member consultative body) and local councils and overwhelmingly dominates the People's Assembly. The People's AssemblyThe People's Assembly, which comprises 444 directly elected members, exercises legislative power. One-half of the assembly are in theory farmers and labourers, but in practice this is not observed, and ten members are nominated by the president. Presidential decrees also have the force of law. The president may dissolve the Assembly only if he gains support for such a course in a referendum, and a minister can be required to resign if the Assembly passes a vote of no confidence in him. Should that happen against the president's wishes, the matter may be put to a referendum. The ruling NDP emerged from the October-November 2000 parliamentary election with its usual commanding majority, but only after elected independents rejoined the party following the poll. The election was the first under full judicial supervision, allowing a more diverse outcome than usual, but allegations of malfeasance persisted. In any case, the Assembly's ability to change the government or to amend legislation remains severely limited. The president appoints one-third of the members of the Shura Council; one-half of its elected members face election every three years and all members sit for six years. Elections for the council, which is dominated by the NDP, were last held in May-June 2004. The judiciaryEgypt's overloaded judiciary is independent, but the government tends to circumvent rulings not to its liking, often by employing the state of emergency regulations that have been in force since Mr Sadat was assassinated. These allow the police almost unlimited powers of search and arrest, and control of the media. "Fast track" military courts are used to try Islamist cases as they are considered to be more effective in achieving convictions than civilian trials, which can take years, in part because of legislative complexities. The executiveAlthough formally accountable to parliament, the prime minister is the president's primary lieutenant and is responsible for implementing his policies throughout Egypt's all-pervasive bureaucracy. Important decisions are made by the president in consultation with ministers and advisers. The main ministries are defense, foreign affairs, information, economy and interior. International Relations and DefenseClose neighborsEgypt's historically close ties with the US, its status as the most populous Arab country and its tireless diplomacy have enabled it to carve out a position as a regional powerbroker, and following the demise of several influential leaders in the Arab world-King Hussein of Jordan and King Hassan of Morocco both died in 1999, followed by the Syrian president, Hafez el-Assad, in 2000-Mr Mubarak has become the unquestioned senior Arab statesman. Relations with Sudan, which had been tense since June 1995 when there were allegations of Sudanese complicity in an assassination attempt on Mr. Mubarak, warmed considerably following the ousting from the inner circle of power of Sudan's Islamist leader and parliamentary speaker, Hassan al- Turabi, in 2000. Despite periodic setbacks and concern over the nature of Muammar Qadhafi's rule, relations with Libya have also improved under Mr Mubarak, as Egypt views its neighbor as the provider of an important source of employment for its labor force, and as a useful buffer against Islamist extremism within the region. However, Egypt's regional diplomatic clout has suffered under the presidency of the US president, George W Bush. Egypt was taken aback by the fact that it did not have a say in the US-brokered Machakos Protocol, a framework peace treaty signed in July 2002 between the Sudanese government and the southern Sudanese People's Liberation Army, which allows for the possibility of a referendum on the issue of the secession of the south after a six-year interim period. Egypt considers the issue to be of strategic importance for its own interests: its main concern is the security of its share of water from the River Nile. Further a field, Egypt has improved relations with both Turkey and Iran. Egypt's role in the 1990-91 Gulf crisis strengthened its relationships with Gulf states considerably, particularly with Saudi Arabia. Egypt's entry to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa) in June 1998 and its participation in that body's free-trade area, launched in October 2000, serves to highlight its push to revive neglected trade ties with Africa. A major focus of foreign policy is to open up new export markets, but the emphasis on upgrading relations with Africa also has another dimension: the Nile runs through nine other states, and Cairo is likely to have to make water agreements with all of them. Western powersSince the signing of the Camp David accords, Egypt's most important international relationship has been with the US. Relations strengthened as Egypt played a crucial role in winning over Arab support for the US's campaign to oust Iraq from Kuwait in 1991-92, and then fulfilled the role of key Arab partner in US efforts to achieve peace between Israel and Arabs. In the early part of this decade, however, the foundations on which this relationship was built were shaken. Egypt's ability to influence the Israeli-Palestinian conflict waned, as for stretches there was no peace process to speak of; when the US re-engaged, the decisions were frequently made bilaterally between the governments of Mr. Bush and the Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon. Moreover, Egypt's direct ties with the US came under strain as the US's global "war on terror" led to unprecedented scrutiny of the nature of Mr. Mubarak's rule. Egypt therefore welcomed with gusto the opportunity to advance the peace process provided by the death of the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, in November 2004. Simultaneously, the US has, in reality, receded somewhat from its initial ambitions for the promotion of democracy in the region, thereby allowing Egypt greater leeway. However, overt pressure from US policymakers for greater political plurality will endure-at least until the end of Mr. Bush's second term, and probably beyond-as the policy now forms a central part of US foreign strategy. Ties with the European Union, Egypt's largest trading partner, are gaining higher priority as Egypt looks to balance its ties with the US. A wide-ranging Association Accord with the EU-aiming to strengthen political, social and, particularly, economic ties-came into effect in June 2004 after years of negotiations.
Job Creation, The Paramount Challenge for EgyptEgypt's population stood at 71.8m in January 2005, according to the latest official estimates, with 69.9m resident citizens and some 1.9m others working abroad. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the population to rise to almost 81m by 2010 and to above 98m by 2020. Reducing the population growth rate presents a major challenge for the government. The domestic population growth rate slowed slightly in 2004 to 1.84% (compared with 1.96% in 2003). More than half of the population is under 24 years old, while less than 4% are over 65. With such a youthful population, the pressures on the labor market and social services are considerable. According to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (20) (CAPMAS, the national statistical agency) the labour force grew by 2.4% during fiscal year 2005 (July 1st 2004-June 30th 2005), to 21.2m. Of this total, some 19.1m are employed. According to the latest data, in fiscal 2003 the workforce was made up of 5.3m civil servants, 900,000 working in state enterprises, 5.1m in the formal private sector and 6.9m in the informal private sector. "A mission of the International Monetary Fund led by Mr. Klaus Enders (31), the mission chief for the Arab Republic of Egypt in the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD), visited Egypt during April 3-16, 2006 to conduct the 2006 Article IV Consultation discussions. Mr. Mohsin Khan, the Director of MCD, attended the policy discussions. "The mission took stock of recent economic developments and reviewed future economic policies. The discussions serve as input for the preparation of the annual report on Egypt for the IMF Executive Board. The discussions were conducted against the backdrop of accelerating economic growth, low inflation, strong balance of payments and foreign reserves positions and, more broadly, growing confidence in the direction and depth of economic policies. The establishment of a smooth-functioning foreign exchange market has been a major source of market confidence. Banking sector reform and privatization are moving ahead at a pace exceeding expectations. In the fiscal area, there has been progress in strengthening the tax and customs regimes and bringing more transparency and efficiency to budgetary operations. "Job creation is the paramount challenge facing the Egyptian authorities today. Indeed, the ongoing reforms are aimed at laying the ground for sustained private sector-led investment and growth. The next phase of reforms would need to reduce the constraints on private sector activity arising from weaknesses in financial intermediation, absorption of a large share of national savings by the public sector, and bureaucratic barriers to business development. Implementing these reforms will require building a strong political and social consensus. At the same time, the timing is appropriate, given the unique combination of favorable economic conditions, the strong reform momentum, and growing investor confidence. "The IMF team views fiscal policy as the key to maintaining macroeconomic stability. The budget deficit and public debt in Egypt—while still manageable—are relatively high, and cannot be sustained at current levels without compromising Egypt's economic potential. The recent tax reforms were an important development, and need to be complemented by an ambitious and credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy that puts public debt as a share of GDP on a firmly declining path. Toward this end, the authorities agreed with the team on the need for a comprehensive expenditure reduction program, aimed at rationalizing the size of government, increasing the productivity of expenditure, and improving the targeting of pro-poor spending. Meanwhile, the team welcomes the authorities' structural reform efforts aimed at streamlining cash management. "The policy focus of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) should remain on keeping inflation low, building on its success so far. The CBE is also moving forward on schedule to implement its multi-year program of financial sector restructuring and divestiture, and to strengthen bank supervision. "The government has made impressive progress with its privatization program. Ongoing efforts to reduce red tape, enhance the flexibility of labor markets, and facilitate access to finance and land for small and medium-sized enterprises, are welcome and should accelerate in order to bring Egypt's business environment closer to those prevailing in successful emerging markets. "Finally, much progress has been made on data quality in Egypt, but both the authorities and the Fund team share the view that further improvements in this area are required in order to better support economic analysis and effective policy formulation. In particular, additional work is needed to improve statistics on prices, balance of payments, real indicators of economic activity, and public finances. The IMF stands ready to continue providing technical assistance to Egypt in improving the statistical base." EducationEnrollment successIn 1960 there were only 2.7m primary school student but by fiscal 2002 this had risen to 7.2m. By fiscal 2003 the ratio of primary enrolment had reached 97% and secondary enrolment had risen to 88% from 71 % in fiscal 1991. The number of students in higher education had risen from 134,000 in 1960 to 1.5m in fiscal 2002. These increases are partly accounted for by population growth, but they also reflect the government's commitment since the 1960s to provide free education for all. High population growth places severe demands on the under funded education system. According to CAPMAS, a major school building program to raise the number of primary schools to 15,653 in 2001/02, up from 14,654 in 1993, succeeded in lowering the average number of primary school students per class to 41 in 2001/02, compared with 44 in 1996/97, although the ratio remains high and can be far higher in densely populated and poor areas. The government's bias towards high cost urban and tertiary education has resulted in unequal access to education for different groups within the country, with women in Upper Egypt the most deprived. As the state system is overloaded, some 70% of students take extra private lessons. The proportion of Egyptians with university degrees rose from 4.3% in 1986 to 7.3% in the late 1990s. There are 13 state universities, five private universities, the Islamic university of Al Azhar and 125 technical institutes. Skills shortagesThe rigid education system, with its emphasis on rote learning over critical thinking and its ranks of poorly paid and trained teachers, is failing to supply the labour market with the necessary skills. Illiteracy has fallen gradually but is still high, according to the World Bank. Male literacy among the 15-and-over age group stood at 67% in 2002, with female literacy at 44% in the same year, up from 60% and 34% respectively in 1990. In the 15-24-year-old age group, 79% of men were literate in 2002, compared with 71 % in 1990, and 67% of women were literate, up from 51 % in 1990. (12) Natural resources and the environmentLand useEgypt's total land area is just under 1m sq km, of which only 35,190 sq km is settled and cultivated. About 95% of the land is uninhabitable desert, so that more than 97% of the population lives in the narrow strip of the Nile Valley that runs the length of the country, and in the Nile Delta. Population density in non-desert areas is therefore high, at about 870/sq km. The governorates of Cairo, Giza and Kalyoubia, which include Greater Cairo, contained 16.7m inhabitants in 2002. Cairo has a population density of about 31,700/sq km, and in some urban districts the density reaches more than 100,000/sq km. Government concerns about overcrowding in the Nile Valley and the destabilizing social problems that could result were the main impetus behind the Southern Valley development project that aims to reclaim a large swathe of desert by pumping water from Lake Nasser. The NileThe government and the public are slowly becoming aware of the need for environmental protection, and the country's first environmental action plan was produced in 1992 with assistance from the World Bank. With little rainfall, the country relies on the Nile to meet nearly all of its water needs. Egypt is currently categorised by the World Bank as under "water stress" and heading towards water scarcity; the action plan noted that about 90% of Egypt's used water goes untreated, while most of the industrial wastewater is discharged unmonitored. Air pollution levels are very high. According to the World Bank, the air in Cairo has the world's highest lead content, eight times over the internationally accepted safety level. Egyptian industries are estimated to dump at least ten tones/minute of solid waste, 33% of which goes into uncontrolled landfills, canal banks and drains. The security of Egypt's water supply has become of growing concern following statements by a number of riparian states that they want to revise the 1929 Nile Basin Treaty. This treaty was signed by Britain on behalf of its then colonies and gives Egypt a veto over the use of Nile waters by East African nations if it believes this would be detrimental to downstream levels. Moreover, the 1959 treaty between Egypt and Sudan apportioned the Nile waters between them, with Egypt taking the lion's share at 55.5bn cu meters/year, and failed to include any of the remaining eight Nile basin countries. Egypt, which relies on the Nile for more than 95% of its water, has always maintained that both treaties are untouchable. However, the other Nile states are increasingly questioning why they should abide by a colonial-era agreement that hampers their development. The matter has begun to come to a head. In March Tanzania began building a 170-km water pipeline to supply dry inland towns from Lake Victoria, a project that contravenes the 1929 treaty. In early April the Ugandan president, Yoweri Museveni, criticised Egypt's long-standing monopoly of the Nile waters, demanding that "this egocentric approach on the uses of Nile water must stop" and a new treaty be negotiated. In addition, Kenya has said that it will not accept any restrictions on its use of Nile water. In response, the Egyptian government has stressed its willingness to extend technical and financial aid to the Nile basin countries, but has so far refused to back down. Environmental protectionThe government and the public are slowly becoming aware of the need for environmental protection, and the country's first environmental action plan was produced in 1992 with assistance from the World Bank. With little rainfall, the country relies on the Nile to meet nearly all of its water needs. Egypt is currently categorized by the World Bank as under "water stress" and heading towards water scarcity; the action plan noted that about 90% of Egypt's used water goes untreated, while around 50% of industrial wastewater is discharged unmonitored. Air pollution levels are very high. According to the World Bank, the air in Cairo has the world's highest lead content, eight times over the internationally accepted safety level. Egyptian industries are estimated to dump at least ten tones/minute of solid waste, 33% of which goes into uncontrolled landfills, canal banks and drains. Transport, communications and the InternetRailwaysThe rail system, which had 9,455 km of track as of the end of fiscal 2003, is the oldest in the region. Modernization will be required if the goals of carrying containerized transport from Egyptian ports to continental Africa and increasing the share of domestic freight moved by rail are to be realized. The rail network carries some 800m passengers/year, or 2.3m passengers/day (excluding the estimated 10,000 passengers/day who ride on top of carriages without a ticket), and some 12m tones/year of goods. Nevertheless, with cheap third-class trains serving more than 80% of passengers, revenue only covers around 60% of expenses. Egyptian National Railways receives some E£l.4bn/year in government subsidy, and is considered to be under funded.
RoadsFollowing an extensive modernization and expansion program that was begun in the 1980s, Egypt had 45,500 km of paved roads by 2005, but many are in poor condition. The four-lane, 9.5-km Mubarak Peace suspension bridge over the Suez Canal near Ismailia that links Sinai with the rest of Egypt was inaugurated in 2001, when a nearby railway bridge was also completed. The first suspension bridge over the River Nile-the 1 km, E£120m (US$27m by average 2002 exchange rate) Aswan Bridge-was officially opened in December 2002. A 250-km Greater Cairo ring road is under construction. The Mediterranean coastal road is also being renovated as it forms part of the link between North Africa and Europe's Mediterranean road network via the Gibraltar crossing. Some 85% of domestic freight and 60% of passenger movements are by road. Road safety is of major concern as Egypt has one of the highest incidences of traffic fatalities in the world, with an official death toll of 6,000 people in 2002, and 28,000 injuries. Air ServicesThe state-owned carrier, Egypt Air, is by far the largest Egyptian airline, carrying some 8.6m passengers in fiscal 2004. The 72-year-old airline is a significant economic actor, employing some 22,000 people. The airline reported net income of E£644m (US$105m at prevailing exchange rates) in fiscal 2004, reversing losses of US$300m in fiscal 2002, and E£S21m (US$55m at 200S rates) in fiscal200S. The recovery is in part due to dramatic growth in the tourism sector after a downturn in 2001 and 2002. InternetInternet use is constrained by cost, language, rates of literacy, inadequate infrastructure and skills shortages, while e-commerce, still in its infancy, is beset by legal and regulatory hurdles. However, with strong support from the government, which hopes to turn the country from an IT laggard into an IT hub, Egypt is witnessing something of an Internet boom By August 2005 there were 5m Internet users, up from 535,000 in 2000. In a bold move, the government launched free Internet services in January 2002. The consumer no longer pays fees to Internet service providers (ISPs), but instead pays only the price of a regular call-extremely cheap by international standards. ISPs lease access ports from TE and purchase a dial-up number, which they then market to consumers. In return, TE pays the ISPs 70% of the revenue from connections made through their phone number. However, the measure is controversial with ISPs who complain of high leasing rates and say their profit margins are low. Many of the smaller ISPs among the 64 which were operating when the new system was introduced have since closed. Energy provisionThe switch to gasDemand for power has continued to rise rapidly as a result of demographic and economic growth. The shortcomings of hydroelectric power, which used to provide more than 25% of Egypt's electricity, were highlighted in 1988 during the water crisis that followed eight years of drought in the catchments areas of the River Nile. In response the government launched a crash program to build power stations that would depend on locally produced natural gas, with the additional bonus that oil would be saved for export. All oil-fired power stations have now been converted to run on natural gas as their primary fuel. Installed capacity now stands at 17,600 mw, of which 84% is based on natural gas and the rest is hydroelectric, mainly from the Aswan Dam. The Ministry of Electricity and Energy is implementing plans to bring on stream 12,875 mw of new power generating capacity over the next ten years. In the first phase, financed by development agencies, 4,500 mw will be added by mid 2007, based on an assumed annual increase in demand of 7.5%. In the second phase 8,375 mw will be added by mid-2012, assuming annual demand growth of 6.6% from 2008. Other energy sourcesNuclear plans in the 1980s, including a US$ one billion nuclear power station at Al Dabaa, were shelved owing to cost and safety considerations. In November 1997 an Argentinean-built US $lOOm, 22-mw research nuclear reactor became operational, replacing the 2-mw facility built by the Soviet Union at Inshas, north-east of Cairo, in 1961. Egypt now generates about 150 mw of wind power, mostly sited at Zafraana on the Gulf of Suez, but also at Hurghada and on the north coast. There are also plans to build a part-solar power plant at Kureimat as a BOOT project, which will have so mw of solar capacity out of a total planned capacity of 150 mw. The World Bank is expected to offset the difference in cost between the solar and thermal projects.
The Economy
Economics and growth
Economic structureIn fiscal 2005 growth rose to an estimated 4% as the pound stabilized and business and consumer confidence strengthened following the appointment of the government of Mr Nazif. Agriculture has grown steadi1y, albeit modestly, at around 3-4% a year, and Egypt therefore continues to be a large-scale food importer. Despite liberalization, the public sector continues to play an important role in the economy accounting for 33% of the total GDP and 30% of the total work force. Egypt has the largest population in the Arab world and, after Saudi Arabia, the largest GDP. The economy is dominated by services, which, including public administration, account for about one-half of GDP. Tourism and the Suez Canal are important service sectors. Tourism, vulnerable to political events, has become increasingly resilient and has recovered strongly from the effects of both the September 11 th 2001 suicide attacks in the US and the US-led invasion of Iraq in 200S. The Suez Canal has performed strongly in recent years as high fuel prices have made the longer trip around Africa more expensive for ships traveling between Europe and Asia. AgricultureAgriculture is a major economic issue in Egypt. It is an issue as a local food source, for international trade, for balance of payments, land use and water use and as a basic product for food and fiber manufacturing. Hence every aspect of the economic structure of a country relates to agriculture. Banking, transportation, tax and tariff structure, subsidies, local and international markets and health are all part of the agricultural system of a country. Not to mention politics, of course. Agriculture's contribution to GDP is gradually diminishing, but it is still an important activity. Even though only 3% of the total land area is arable land, agriculture accounted for 13.9% of GDP in fiscal 2005 (July 1st 2004-June 30th 2005), according to local data, and 28% of total employment in 2000/01. Manufacturing industries are also important, accounting (including oil refining) for 18.2% of GDP in fiscal 2005, and are heavily concentrated in Cairo and the Nile Delta. Mining (which includes petroleum and natural gas) is also a mainstay of the economy, accounting for 14.8% of GDP in fiscal 2005 (a proportion that was swollen by exceptional oil prices) and 38% of merchandise exports, despite a decline in crude oil production. There is a large informal sector, which the finance minister has put at some 30% of total economic activity. SubsidiesThe gradual elimination of subsidies and price controls was to be a central plank of the economic reform program. Although the government chose not to implement its IMF commitment to raise energy prices to market levels by mid-1999, subsidies on basic foods were cut back in the 1990s, leaving bread, sugar and cooking oil as the only subsidized items for low-income consumers. The sluggish performance of the private sector, however, has led the government to boost subsidy spending in recent years. Explicit spending on subsidies, grants and social benefits rose from E£18.1bn (US$4bn by average 2002 exchange rate) in fiscal 2002 (15.7% of spending) to E£29.5bn in fiscal 2005 (18.5% of spending) in fiscal 2005 and was budgeted to leap to E£50.5bn in fiscal 2006 as implicit petroleum subsidies were incorporated. Wages and living standardsWith such a large public sector, the government is necessarily deeply involved in the labor market. Government estimates put the number of Egyptians employed within the country at 19.1m in fiscal 2005, while another 1.9m work abroad. As around 800,000 people join the labor market every year, finding employment is a major problem. A long-standing government guarantee to provide work for all university graduates has produced huge waiting lists for state jobs and a surfeit of underemployed, badly paid civil servants. Successive budgets have raised state wages and pensions, but only recently have these gone up by more than the rate of inflation. Private-sector jobs are better paid, but limited in number. Even the highest wages and salaries in Egypt are low by international standards. Recently introduced labour legislation sets a minimum wage rise of 7% on the wage on which social insurance is calculated. As the maximum this wage can be currently stands at a low E£1,125 (US$195 by average 2005 exchange rate), the new law is unlikely to have a significant impact. According to the World Bank, the poverty rate fell from 25% in 1995 to 17% in 2000 as the economy grew strongly. However, in September 2005 the World Bank director for Egypt warned that, because of the economic slowdown, poverty could be on the rise again. There is great affluence at the other end of the social scale. As early as 1994 Egypt was one of four countries singled out in the Arab Human Development Report (12) published by the UN Development Program (UNDP), as being "in danger of joining the world's list of failed states because of wide income gaps between sections of their populations". Unemployment is still an acute problem. Official numbers show a steady rise in unemployment, up from a low of 7.9% in 1999/2000 to 10% in fiscal 2005. Although the trend is plausible, reflecting the economic downturn of recent years, most independent estimates put the rate much higher, at around 15-25%. Moreover; unemployment among graduates is considered to be even higher, at almost 40% for men and over 50% for women. Underemployment is estimated to affect between one-third and one-half of all workers.North-south disparities
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| Forecast summary | ||||||||
| (% unless otherwise indicated) | ||||||||
|
|
2003 |
a |
2004 |
a |
2005 |
b |
2006 |
b |
| Real GDP growth |
1.8 |
c |
2.7 |
c |
4.0 |
|
4.8 |
|
| Industrial production growth |
1.8 |
c |
2.6 |
c |
3.2 |
|
4.2 |
|
| Gross agricultural production growth |
4.9 |
|
1.9 |
|
3.1 |
|
3.1 |
|
| Unemployment rate (av)d |
9.9 |
c |
9.9 |
c |
10.0 |
|
10.0 |
|
| Consumer price inflation (av) |
4.5 |
|
11.3 |
|
5.7 |
|
4.8 |
|
| Consumer price inflation (year-end) |
6.4 |
|
11.3 |
|
4.9 |
|
4.5 |
|
| Lending rate |
13.5 |
|
13.4 |
|
13.4 |
|
13.4 |
|
| Government balance (% of GDP) |
-6.1 |
|
-5.7 |
|
-7.0 |
|
-7.9 |
|
| Exports of goods fob (US$ bn) |
9.0 |
|
12.3 |
|
14.3 |
|
16.5 |
|
| Imports of goods fob (US$ bn) |
15.2 |
|
21.6 |
|
24.0 |
|
26.1 |
|
| Current-account balance (US$ bn) |
3.7 |
|
4.0 |
|
2.5 |
|
2.8 |
|
| Current-account balance (% of GDP)e |
5.0 |
|
4.8 |
c |
2.6 |
|
2.8 |
|
| External debt (year-end; US$ bn) |
31.4 |
|
34.1 |
c |
34.2 |
|
34.4 |
|
| Exchange rate E£:US$ (av) |
5.84 |
|
6.20 |
|
5.78 |
|
5.73 |
|
| Exchange rate E£:¥100 (av) |
5.04 |
|
5.73 |
|
5.36 |
|
5.56 |
|
| Exchange rate E£:€ (av) |
6.61 |
|
7.71 |
|
7.09 |
|
7.22 |
|
| Exchange rate E£:SDR (av) |
8.18 |
|
9.18 |
|
8.50 |
|
8.54 |
|
(28)The economist intelligence Unit 15, Regent Street, London, United Kingdom
The Millennium Development Goals (74) seek to eliminate poverty and foster sustaining development, taking a time horizon to 2015. They reflect a decade of conferences and summits supported by Nations. Primary issues include: infant, child, and maternal mortality, malnutrition, access to safe drinking water, access to education, completion of primary education, and "Goals," "targets," and "indicators" were discussed and outcomes, to be measured over time, were agreed upon. In 2000, the United Nations General Assembly unanimously passed and 147 Heads of State signed the Millennium Declaration, the commitment to work toward a world in which the highest priorities are eliminating poverty, and sustaining development.
Egypt approaches the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) as a country with a dual identity. The first Egypt is led by a dynamic, reform-minded government, and is determined to achieve prosperity and social cohesion through the mechanism of overall economic and political reform. The second Egypt is, through the effects of decades of deeply embedded poverty and political disaffection, distanced from and indifferent to the first. The majority of Egypt’s 78 million people are in the latter category. Slowly, however, things are beginning to improve.
The following table summarizes the estimated position of Egypt in each of the goals.
|
MDG Goal |
Targets |
likely |
possible |
unlikely |
lack of data |
|
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger |
Reducing by half the percentage of the population living in poverty
|
|
X |
|
|
|
|
Reduce by half the prevalence of underweight children |
|
|
|
X |
|
Achieve universal access to education |
Attain 100% primary school enrollment by 2015 |
|
X |
|
|
|
Promote gender equality and empower women |
Reduce the gender gap in primary and secondary enrollment and literacy among 15-24 year olds by 2005
|
|
|
X |
|
|
|
Increase the share of women in non agricultural employment and in the national parliament |
|
|
X |
|
|
Reduce infant and child mortality and |
Reduce infant and child morality by 2/3 by 2015
|
X |
|
|
|
|
Improve maternal health |
Reduce the maternal mortality ratio by ¾ by 2015
|
X |
|
|
|
|
|
Achieve 90% of births attended by skilled staff by 2015 |
X |
|
|
|
|
Combat HIV/AIDS. |
Slow the rate of HIV/AIDS
|
|
|
|
X |
|
|
Increase contraceptive use |
X |
|
|
|
|
Combat malaria and communicable diseases |
|
X |
|
|
|
|
Ensure environmental sustainability |
Reduce by half the percentage of the population without access to safe drinking water by 2015 |
X |
|
|
|
